It is actually not so hard to read the future if we just focus on data. When I went to the Philippines and looked at property. I did so because it was my GF's place of birth. Upon preparing considerable research however I realised that this country has a lot to offer, and that the impediments to it realising that potential were in the process of being eroded. The remaining obstacles in the Philippines are primarily:
1. Institutional framework - whether tax collection, procurement, policing, management
2. Infrastructure - mainly telecommunications
3. Regulation - land zoning, civil disturbance, market price regulation
4. Service - contracts, service culture
This is a huge pool of problems, so it will take some time to deal with these issues. I can nevertheless see evidence that these issues are slowly being addressed. The implication is that once the Philippines comes out of this market slump, it will be one of the best performers. Why?
1. Greater restrictions on land use
2. Greater capacity for debt leveraging
3. Greater investment from Filipinos abroad
4. Greater investment in regionally-based call centres
5. Strong population growth - currently 2% per annum
6. Continued roll-out of telecommunications infrastructure
7. Compliance measures to increase tax collection by BIR
It will take a long time to convince people that the Philippines is anything but a failed state; and in fairness it is just the start. I offer this advice to allow you to position for a counter-cyclical investment in a promising market. Thailand and Vietnam have shown us what we can expect from a reformed market economy.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
1. Institutional framework - whether tax collection, procurement, policing, management
2. Infrastructure - mainly telecommunications
3. Regulation - land zoning, civil disturbance, market price regulation
4. Service - contracts, service culture
This is a huge pool of problems, so it will take some time to deal with these issues. I can nevertheless see evidence that these issues are slowly being addressed. The implication is that once the Philippines comes out of this market slump, it will be one of the best performers. Why?
1. Greater restrictions on land use
2. Greater capacity for debt leveraging
3. Greater investment from Filipinos abroad
4. Greater investment in regionally-based call centres
5. Strong population growth - currently 2% per annum
6. Continued roll-out of telecommunications infrastructure
7. Compliance measures to increase tax collection by BIR
It will take a long time to convince people that the Philippines is anything but a failed state; and in fairness it is just the start. I offer this advice to allow you to position for a counter-cyclical investment in a promising market. Thailand and Vietnam have shown us what we can expect from a reformed market economy.
-----------------------------------------------
Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com
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