Telco investment a guide to Filipino property opportunities

The Philippines is an interesting market. The country is experiencing strong urban population growth, though economic activity is subdued as elsewhere. Low household debt levels and gthe prospect of greater regulation of property zoning presents a far greater opportunity for capital growth than elsewhere. It remains to be seen how the credit crisis impacts on the Philippines government reform agenda, however the Philippines will benefit from a continuing shift towards BPO call centres. Of course it will need to overcome cultural challenges to increase its market penetration. Eventually Filipinos will be engaging in sales (‘cold calling’) as well as performing customer support. It’s just an issue of cultural familiarity and training. I would suggest that the greatest prospect for property appreciation is in the regional cities which are likely to experience greater income growth as call centres shift to regional areas to profit from lower wages and greater worker retention (due to less competition and worker migration). Rural workers are more loyal, though such locations are currently disadvantaged by poor telecommunications infrastructure. The best way to establish where to buy is to determine where the new tfibre optic lines are being built, and where call centres will be able to get quality P1 line connections.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Should first home buyers buy now and where?

The answer to this question always depends on the context. You would think that the Australian government has seen the folly of debt given the current extent of indebtness. Yet its solution to the current crisis is to provide first home grants to aspiring home buyers or builders. One would think that we could do with some more savers in the country. But the political agenda is not about good policy, but rather stimulating economic activity at any price; whether that causes financial ruin for some naive 20-24yo who has managed to save a deposit. Tough love from government.
It is not entirely a bad idea to shun such gratuities, but there are times and opportunities when you should buy property using such grants. The instances in which you might buy property could be:
1. you are employed with exposure to the rural sector
2. You are living in a rural area where property prices are low, yields are high
3. You have saved up a deposit and you would be borrowing less than $50,000.

Given that the Australian government is offering $14-23,000 to first home buyers, in this context I would happily buy a property in the countryside. It would be insane however to buy property in the city, or fringe areas for some time yet.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Buying property for the exchange rate benefits

Recently my partner and I bought a property in NZ. There are several attractions to buying property in NZ.
1. The very cheap currency - when commodity prices collapse so does the currency
2. The absence of capital gains tax (CGT) & goods & services tax (GST) on property
3. The attractive lifestyle - NZ is far more fun compared to when I first came here years ago
4. The change in government - the new National government are likely to be better economic managers, perhaps similar to the Aust Liberal Party, but in a moderated sense because these are different times.

The attraction of buying NZ property makes particular sense if you can pay off the loan in foreign currency (whilst the NZD is low) so you can sell it when the currency (and commodity prices) is stronger. You also have the flexibility of making this work in other ways. You can rent the property when the currency is low, and use rental property abroad to pay off your (low NZ) costs of living. When the NZD shows signs of strength, you can move offshore to enjoy the same benefits in another country, or you can refinance your home to pay off another investment property if the local property market is still hot.

The issues that come to mind for investors are:
1. Setting up a bank account - try ASB, BNZ or Westpac
2. Speaking the local language - English in NZ
3. Residence visa - easier if you have a NZ or Australian partner, you are a business owner, or you qualify for their skilled migration program. eg. Tradesperson.

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The NZ property market is shaping up as one of the most attractive property investment markets for the next few years. High yielding property and the collapse of the NZD make NZ the perfect counter-cyclical investment if you buy right! In addition, there is no capital gains tax, transfer taxes, VAT/GST or wealth taxes in NZ, so rest assured that NZ property is tax-effective! Learn more now!

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Implications of crisis on property outlook

There are no revelations to date which have changed my view of the outlook for the market. This collapse was expected. If you read over my market commentary blog that will be evident enough. I did actually expect the derivatives market to require the bail out, but actually that aspect of the financial market has been secondary.
So what is coming. In my last 'market commentary' post I stated that the US Congress will approve the bail out. Some commentators are expecting less than $700 billion because of a reluctant Republican Congress. I would however argue that that is mostly political posturing and the $700 billion figure will be required to preserve confidence. The other option is making a smaller commitment with the possibility of more if required.
The property market in the USA is falling because its highly leveraged. The same is true in a number of Western countries. This is not the case in a number of Asian countries. With the prospect of inflation, and low debt levels as a percentage of GDP, places like the Philippines make a lot of sense for investors. Japan is already in recession, has high public debt, but its domestic debt, not foreign debt. We can expect a subdued market in Japan but yields on non-CBD property are still good. In the countryside yields on foreclosed property are very good.
The Philippines can expect a lot of support from OFWs, though some of those will be returning home. At the end of the day, higher interest rates and inflation are not going to undermine the market significantly because most property buyers/holders paid cash, or are supported by OFWs. That spells little downside for Philippines property.
In contrast, the US property market has more downside then several years of consolidation as taxes and interest rates rise to reflect the higher inflation. A serious and protracted recession for the USA, but not a depression unless the Fed does something silly. There is also the prospect of some countries with surpluses stimulating the global economy, eg. EU, China, South Korea and Australia with increased domestic spending. Japan would need to increase taxes to justify increased spending. One would expect energy taxes to be the principal target for tax because its discretionary cost (at least directly speaking) and it helps achieve greenhouse gas objectives.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

New centres for condo development

The Western Australian government is considering the development of high rise condominium developments in the north of the state. The concept arose as a political football, the argument being, if the Arab states can do it, why can't Australia. That argument can of course be extended to many countries in Asia which are a lot more central than the Middle East. There are some major problems. The most important being:
1. The lack of an international airport - this is a critical issue
2. The remoteness of the area - the region is far remote from any significant commercial centre
3. The isolation from markets - places like Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia are closer to Japan, China, South Korea.

One could take the argument that Australia does offer some advantages over these other countries because it offers more secure Torrens title. But does anyone seriously worry that they won't have a chance to sell property before any threat of property expropriation could arise. If you wait for a dictator to say 'we are nationalising all property' then you have waited too long. But you are not entirely safe in Australia. State governments (say NSW) are prone to place taxes on property because of its value. For this reason I tend to think the sovereign risk concerns are overstated. Also foreign holders of Asian property are not so large, so there will be no mass exodus. There is on the contrary, a seeming consensus on the direction of economic policy.

So where is the best location for high rise condominiums? I can suggest several locations in Asia that are more attractive than the NW of Australia. These include:
1. Davao City, Mindanao, in the Philippines
2. Laoag City, Luzon, in the Philippines

Laoag is particularly attractive because its on the doorstep to China, it has an international airport, with a growing number of connections. It is remote from Manila, but I don't see that as a problem since the regions have a lot to offer.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

Is the proposed train line in Sydney a political scam

Life really does require being a critical analyst of all things. Vested interests are really in the game of deception in order to get what they want. There was an advertisement on the television in Sydney today which strikes me as nothing more than a media stunt by the NSW State Labor Party. The reason I say this is because they are proposing to develop a train line at a cost of $A16 billion from St James (City) to Rouse Hill 6 years in the future. Property investors would be inclined to get excited about such a line because of its potential to push up property prices, but ultimately the political will depends on its economic justification, particularly since they are looking at a private partnership. There are of course some things to note about the line:
1. A line costing $16 billion is going to require $500 million in earnings to make it worthwhile
2. This part of Sydney is not the most populated area
3. The line will include 14 new stations - however only about 5 of these areas have significantly dense populations. It could be argued the outer areas could have carparks to service a wider area.
4. This is a new line so there is the opportunity for the line to be a much faster service than existing lines. We can therefore expect this line to be more expensive, particularly since it will be servicing some high wealth suburbs. I would expect the tickets to be 30-50% higher than other train services in the city, with some justification.
5. It will be interesting to know what the government will be doing to capture some of the value from property development in these areas. Think of the cost recovery from property development where the government owns land, as well as the additional taxes it can make because of the higher property prices. These factors need to be considered.
Nevertheless one would have to be skeptical about this plan given the political value of the news in the next election, since the area skirts safe Liberal seats. I would not be surprised to see this line reduced to a shorter line to Epping, with development of the outer line (Epping to Rouse Hill) pushed back a number of years.

We cannot however overlook the political opportunism of advocating and promoting a project which stretches beyond the term of this government. For further details see the Sydlink website. The issue here is determining whether these projects are going to go ahead. There can be a whole raft of issues preventing them, so one has to be careful anticipating and actually buying property on the basis of such 'proposals'.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com

The Philippines - strongest property prospects in Asia

The Philippines is expected to make the strongest advances in property prices over the next decade (2008-18) based on current macroeconomic considerations. The Philippines has long been regarded as an economic laggard in Asia because of its crippling corruption and low regional competitiveness compared to the Asian upstarts China and Vietnam. Several years ago however the Arroyo administration brought home some poignant lessons in economic growth, and she has slowly made changes to implement them to good effect. President Arroyo is a trained economist herself. The question remains - will this trend be sustained? Based on the breadth of the reform - we think yes. We also think that despite having no chance of a 3rd term, Arroyo will be recognised over the next 2 years for her efforts. This will mean she will have considerable influence in determining the next party leader. The factors which are likely to lift the property market are:
1. Climate: The attractive climate provides a compelling reason for expat Filipinos and foreigners to live in the Philippines.
2. Filipinos lifestyle values make the Philippines a nice balance between business and recreation. Things move more slowly here and that appeals to a lot of people, particularly retirees.
3. The Western legal system provides people with the capacity to seek court resolutions to conflicts
4. Land title reform will give landowners confidence in the validity and security of their title in the first instance. Cross-jurisdictional administration should help reduce corruption. This will take some time, but this should not delay investors since half of the country's title is already based on the Torrens title system.
5. Strong population growth could mean a lot of new property buyers if the government is able to deliver on its reform agenda. The current rate of population growth is 2% per annum, the fastest rate in Asia.
6. English speaking environment makes the Philippines an easier place for Westerners to live and do business. Even for Koreans, Japanese and Chinese, who might have struggled with another language, they can rejoice in their English skills, as well as the large populations of Koreans and Chinese already living and doing business in the Philippines.
7. Structural adjustment of the Philippines economy and its system of administration is set to have a big impact. At this point there is little in the way of results, but gradually this factor alone could help to stamp out corruption. The core of the change is the Local Government Code of 1991. This law proves that some laws improve with age.
8. Regional proximity: The closeness of the Philippines to Asian countries is likely to lift the standing of the Philippines as a tourist destination, particularly if the growth of budget airlines continues from secondary airports. The Philippines is well positioned to benefit from a stronger Asian economy and higher rates of Asian tourism. Chinese are just starting to go abroad.
9. The low cost of living, including the ‘relatively’ low cost of property in the Philippines by global standards is a compelling reason for buying property in the Philippines.
10. End of land reform: This is speculation at this stage, but the Agrarian Land Reform Program (CARP) will likely be abandoned by Congress. Currently Congress cannot reach an agreement. CARP was implemented to give landless Filipinos greater equity or reward from their participation in the rural economy rural, after they had long been marginalised by land barons. The policy of land distribution was intended to lift food output, but its had the opposite impact. CARP has thwarted investment in both production capacity as well as farm acquisition. Higher food prices, termination of CARP, greater investment for higher yields and land zoning compliance should help to raise land demand, and thus land prices. Farm prices have hardly recovered from the drought-breaking rains after 30 years of restrained investment. One need only look at the poor land utilisation rates in the Philippines. ‘This country should be a rice basket, yet it cannot feed itself’.
11. Tighter property supply as a result of tighter controls on land rezoning by local government should increase land prices more than in the past. The devolution of public administration from national to local government units should result in higher incomes and stronger economic activity in provincial areas.
12. Generous tourist visa conditions mean that allow foreigners to reside in the country on an extended tourism visa for up to 18 months. Indonesia is far more strict.
13. Credit expansion: The third wave of a global credit expansion is set to propel Asian property and equity prices over the next decade. The gains will come slowly at first, but with asset deflation sparked by higher interest rates elsewhere its not too late to buy. The Philippines is destined to be one of the best performers.

One might well take comfort from the negatives in the Philippines because they can only get better.
14. Peace in Mindanao: Perhaps the greatest obstacle to development is the 30-year fight by the Muslims of Mindanao for independence. More moderate Muslims are negotiating an measure of autonomy with the national government, but recent negotiations have failed. It is still too early to say if the Philippines government will reach a peace accord with the Muslim free-fighters of the Muslim Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). Much of Mindanao and the Sulu Islands have been off-limits to development because of conflicts that have left this promising region as one of the poorest in the Philippines. There is the promise of extraordinary gains on property investment once these security threats are removed. But given the uncertainly, Davao looks like the safer investment option.
15. Port reforms are needed to improve the efficiency of the ports. This is a significant cost for importers and exporters alike. The cost of domestic shipping has fallen due to the development of RORO port facilities.
16. Corruption remains at a high level, and the President's family has been implicated in some corruption scandals.
17. Labour productivity is very poor in the Philippines. There are programs to address it, but they are not so significant at this point. Education standards over the last 20 years have declined.
18. Acquired assets: The Philippines has a high level of bad debts as a proportion of total loanable funds. This has been a significant drag on the local economy. A bout of inflation at the current time should actually help the banks liquidate these bad debts.

For these reasons I retain a positive opinion on the outlook for the Philippines economy, and the property market in particular. I actually did not recognise the significance of the trend until I started researching and analysing this market. The reform of local government in the Philippines is not publicised much. For more information see our latest report Buying Philippines Property. Download a copy of the first chapter here.
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Andrew Sheldon www.sheldonthinks.com